What is predictive validity?

Predictive validity is a type of validity that assesses the extent to which a test or measurement can accurately predict future outcomes or behaviors. In other words, it measures how well the test can forecast the performance of individuals on a criterion that has not yet been measured.

Predictive validity is commonly used in fields such as education, psychology, and employee selection to determine whether a test or assessment accurately predicts future success or performance. For example, a company may use a pre-employment assessment test to predict the success of job candidates in a particular role.

To establish predictive validity, researchers typically conduct a study where they administer a test to a group of individuals and then track their performance on a criterion of interest over time. The results are then analyzed to determine if the test scores accurately predict the future criterion.

A high level of predictive validity indicates that the test or measurement is a reliable indicator of future performance, while a low level indicates that it may not accurately predict future outcomes. Predictive validity is an important consideration when developing and evaluating tests and assessments to ensure they are accurate and effective predictors of future behavior or performance.